Climate, Farm Bill (or lack of) and Decisions

It looks like we may well receive enough rain to save my corn and peas. Not sure whether we are turning the corner or not on the ENSO cycle and this is simply the fulfillment of NOAA's climate predictions for the summer and fall of 2013. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf

So what this does for farming decisions in the coming months is indicate some moisture rather than the La Niña pattern that caused the Drought of 2010 -2013 and counting. Though conditions are better in parts of the Midwest, that does not hold true for all locations or the southwest. Last winter was so dry 6% of the winter wheat crop either did not germinate or was of such poor condition it could not be harvested. 

Our planting decisions have to be based both in economics and climate concerns. Both are constantly in flux. With no Farm Bill and the 1949 permanent law looming, our operations will still be rooted outside the system. I spoke with a crop insurance agent a couple days ago who is working up a small grains quote for what we hope to do this fall and winter. If the 1949 law returns, I might have cotton acreage, but most likely not small grains under the allotment system. We also had some peanut allotment as well but I doubt we would qualify under the old system. I will still be able to insure the crop but most likely would not qualify for marketing guarantees for winter small grains. Not that that concerns me over much. So long as I can insure the crop I am happy if the loan rate is high enough to cover costs and make a profit.

Then comes the old standby. Southern peas. Dry weather has prevented us from making a crop for a couple of years, coupled with expansion costs on an expansion that didn't happen beyond equipment, and continuing mechanical issues with some of the equipment, the costs are eating us up. None of the money is borrowed, but it will still take years to dig out of the deficit. I miss the reliability of my old Pixall BH-100.

I am still looking for land to plant small grains on. You would think that in a time when drought has devastated the cattle business, land owners would be flocking to any chance at making some return from their land especially if it included grazing winter wheat or Elbon Rye for free in the winter time. No takers yet.